基于改进CC方法的瓦斯涌出混沌预测
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TD712.5

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Chaos Forecasting of Gas Emission Based on Improved CC Method
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    摘要:

    瓦斯涌出受地质构造、瓦斯煤层厚度、煤层孔隙结构等诸多非线性因素的影响,其行为蕴含着混沌特性。应用混沌理论,分析了瓦斯涌出的混沌行为。针对传统CC方法的不足,提出了用于优化时间延迟和嵌入维参数选取的改进CC方法,改进的CC方法可在重构相空间中更好地展现瓦斯涌出的混沌特性,为瓦斯涌出预测提供了可靠的精度。通过对瓦斯实验数据的分析,改进CC方法获得了较高精度的相空间参数和预测结果,并且最大Lyapunov指数也说明了瓦斯混沌特性的存在。

    Abstract:

    Gas emission would be affected by some nonlinear factors,such as geological structure,thickness and porosity features of coal seam,etc.,and the implication was that it may perform in a chaotic way.Based on chaos theory,the chaotic performance of gas emission was analyzed in detail in this paper.In view of the disadvantages of conventional CC method,an imp roved CC method used in the optimizational selection of time delay and embedding window was presented,which helped to exhibit the chaos features of gas emission in the phase space reconstructed,to predict the gas emission accurately.The analysis of data from gas emission experiment showed that high-precision phase space parameters and the accurate forecasting results of gas emission could be obtained using the improved CC method.Furthermore,the largest Lyapunov exponent deriving from the improved CC method also proved the existence of the chaos performance of gas emission.

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何华刚,胡敏涛.基于改进CC方法的瓦斯涌出混沌预测[J].矿业研究与开发,2009,(4):69-71,90

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  • 在线发布日期: 2012-06-18
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