辽宁省重要矿产资源供需形势及保障程度分析
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辽宁省地质矿产研究院有限责任公司

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辽宁省矿产资源规划(2021-2025年)编制及审查项目(编号:JH21-210000-13396)


GAO Zhonghui,TENG Shouren,LI Weiwei,WANG Yuping,ZHANG Hongmei,WANG Yizhuo
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Liaoing Institute Co. Ltd of Geology and Mineral Resources

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    摘要:

    为预测辽宁省“十四五”期间重要矿产资源需求情况,以“十三五”期间矿产资源开发利用情况为基础,采用需求趋势分析方法,通过追踪产业链,在收集其上下游生产环节的开发利用数据或其下游产品终端市场的消费数据,预测“十四五”期间,铁矿、煤炭、金矿、菱镁矿、熔剂用灰岩和硼矿的实际需求及保障能力。结果表明,未来5年,铁矿需求量为18 375万~19 110万t/a,煤炭需求量为17 992万~19 135万t/a,金矿需求量为811万~892万t/a,菱镁矿需求量为3 048万~3 381万t/a,熔剂用灰岩需求量为1 496万~1 540万t/a,硼矿需求量为416万~539万t/a。菱镁矿和熔剂用灰岩保障程度较高,可达到供需平衡,金矿仍需要大量进口,铁矿、煤炭和硼矿保证程度不足,需进一步加强深部及外围矿产资源勘查,强化开采能力建设。

    Abstract:

    In order to predict the demand for important mineral resources in Liaoning Province during the 14th Five Year Plan period,based on the development and utilization of mineral resources during the 13th Five Year Plan period, the method of demand trend analysis is adopted to track the industrial chain, collect development and utilization data of upstream and downstream production links or consumption data of downstream product end markets, and predict the actual demand and guarantee capacity of iron ore, coal, gold mine, magnesite, flux limestone, and boron ore during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The results show that the demand for iron ore ranges from 183.75 million to 191.1 million tons/a, coal from 179.92 million to 191.35 million tons/a, gold from 8.11 million to 8.92 million tons/a, magnesite from 30.48 million to 33.81 million tons/a, limestone for flux from 14.96 million to 15.4 million tons/a, and boron from 4.16 million to 5.39 million tons/a in the next 5 years. The guarantee degree of magnesite and flux limestone is relatively high, which can achieve supply-demand balance. Gold ore requires a large amount of imports, and the guarantee degree of iron ore, coal, and boron ore is insufficient. It is necessary to further strengthen the exploration of deep and peripheral mineral resources, strengthen mining capacity construction.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-05-16
  • 最后修改日期:2024-06-30
  • 录用日期:2024-07-03
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