基于后悔理论-集对势分析的矿山紧急避险系统安全评价
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贵州大学矿业学院

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国家自然科学基金面上资助项目(51874107);贵州省科技计划项目(黔科合平台人才[2018]5781号)。


Safety Evaluation of Mine Emergency System Based on Regret Theory-set Pair Potential Analysis
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Mining College, Guizhou University

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    摘要:

    针对矿山事故频发,危害性大等问题,基于紧急避险系统的有效性直接影响人员伤亡情况的前提下,提出后悔理论与集对势分析相结合的矿山紧急避险系统安全评价模型。运用此评价模型得出案例矿山紧急避险系统安全值为6.00,安全性介于一般安全和非常安全之间,处于比较安全状态。安全态势为微同势,未有向不安全状态偏向趋势。为提高系统安全性,基于指标重要性计算应提高物料和设施设置。该模型分析结果与突变理论分析结果保持一致,符合案例矿山实际,表明基于后悔理论-集对势评价模型能指导矿山紧急避险系统的安全评价。

    Abstract:

    In view of the frequent occurrence of mine accidents and the serious hazards, a safety evaluation model of mine emergency evacuation system based on Regret Theory and set pair potential analysis is proposed on the premise that the effectiveness of emergency evacuation system directly affects casualties. Using this evaluation model, it is concluded that the safety value of emergency refuge system in case mines is 6.00, which is between general safety and very safety, and is in a relatively safe state. The security situation is slightly the same, and there is no trend towards insecurity. In order to improve the safety of the system, the material and facility settings should be improved based on the calculation of the importance of indicators. The results of the model analysis are consistent with those of catastrophe theory analysis, which is in line with the actual situation of a case mine. It shows that the model based on regret theory-set pair potential evaluation can guide the safety evaluation of mine emergency evacuation system.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-05-17
  • 最后修改日期:2019-05-17
  • 录用日期:2019-05-28
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